Despite some investor confusion about what valuation principles perfectly apply when benchmarking business model performance surrounding mobile/digital video ad tech companies (whether they are tech companies, media organizations, both or neither), publicly traded and privately-held vendors are forecast to steadily increase their share of the business through 2018.

With a ready supply of IPO-related cash still on hand, publicly traded vendors are ramping up international operations, further refining or innovating R & D inside their already enterprise grade tech platforms, and adjusting their customer billing pitches to appeal to a broad spectrum of publishers running operations on very tight budgets.

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Excluding Facebook, desktop/cross-platform vendors are expected to capture 56.5% of the marketplace in 2016. Including the Facebook, mobile/cross-channel adtech will account for 64% of the global digital video/mobile and cross-channel adtech market.

This revenue growth analysis, Digital Video and Mobile AdTech Growth 2016 – 2018 Post M & A Consolidation: Forecasts for Publicly Traded, Independent/VC-backed and Acquired Vendors, is based on extensive primary research and financial modeling developed by Publisher that frames a $26 billion global marketplace in 2016 (excluding Facebook). A $41 billion global marketplace is indicated when including Facebook audience platform.

A 2014 – 2018 CAGR analysis of publicly traded vendors indicates a 35% revenue expansion is expected to capture 20% of total net revenue in 2016.

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Publicly traded digital video and mobile adtech companies are forecast to generate $8.9 billion in run-rate revenue (minus any media related costs), with 67% weighted toward mobile vendors operating globally (excluding Facebook).

When analysis includes Facebook, mobile is poised to capture 87.5% of the $24.1 billion in total revenue generated by publicly traded digital video and mobile adtech platforms and vendors.

The majority of Facebook revenue is generated on the mobile platform (78% in 2015), with approximately 88.5% of daily active users on that platform

Supported by ample supply of venture capital, independent vendors are estimated to grow revenues by 33.2% through 2018 (calculated from 2014) and book 22% of total net revenue in 2016.

Independent vendors (mobile and desktop) are forecast to expand revenue by 32% in 2016, 28.6% in 2018, and frame a market segment worth $11.7 billion, or the equivalent of $22+ billion in potential M & A based on deals finalized for ad technology from the period 2006 through 2015, with take-out multiples analyzed as an integral component to this research package.

Through 2015, a total of $17 billion has been paid out for video, mobile, cross-channel and display-centric adtech solutions.

Across all M & A transactions, multiples have averaged 2.47x topline revenue, and 13.93x gross profit (i.e. revenue minus media-related costs associated with ad spend).

The desktop/cross-channel segment has averaged 2.62x revenue, while mobile/cross-channel adtech deals have averaged 2.0x revenue.

The publicly traded group of platforms, companies and vendors is on course to deliver 41.4% growth in topline (net) revenue in 2016 (excluding Facebook), however, topline revenue multiples averaged a much more modest .6x run-rate revenue in 2015, when factoring net cash out of market capitalization.

Acquired video and mobile adtech solutions vendors are currently estimated at 29.6% comparable growth and forecast to collect 58% of total net revenue in 2016. Those adtech assets are expected to capture 39% of the market in 2016, 35% by 2018 (excluding Facebook).

Facebook generates revenue in relative parity across international markets, and in the U.S., and is the most powerful digital audience platform operating today. The company has enhanced its core technology capabilities and monetization options through targeted acquisition, including the video adtech vendor LiveRail.

Initial rounds of consolidation (i.e. acquisition, mergers and company closings), plus earlier entrants tapping into public equity markets for expansion capital still leaves independent/VC-backed firms owning approximately 27% – 30% of the market.

Independent/VC-backed adtech vendors are growing their revenue base and remain attractive acquisition targets, estimated to book 26.7% of the market in 2016, 27.6% by 2018.

We expect additional rounds of consolidation to take place, as well as new money and entrants coming into the market.

Publisher produces investment grade industry and trade research bridging digital video, internet music radio, download entertainment, digital video/audio advertising/spend, video and mobile adtech platform revenue and M & A valuations, ecosystem trade surveys and support, CDN and integrated media optimization software, ecosystem integrator services, and conducts AvailPlay advertising and audience experience, digital diary and video impression monitoring services on-demand.

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